The aviation industry was assessed at N258.9 billion in the newly published rebased GDP figures, indicating a sector facing poor performance and difficulties staying viable, according to Daily Trust.
The total represents the value of the sector included under Air Transportation in the GDP figures for 2024.
On Monday, July 21, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the updated GDP report, showing that the economy expanded by 3.13% during the first quarter of 2025, compared to 2.27% in the corresponding period of 2024.
The nominal GDP at market prices, after being recalculated, was N205.09 trillion in 2019, increased to N213.64 trillion in 2020, reached N243.30 trillion in 2021, rose to N274.23 trillion in 2022, amounted to N314.02 trillion in 2023, and totaled N372.82 trillion in 2024.
Where air transport stands
The air transport sector operates completely within a dollar-based system. The purchase of airplanes, refueling, aircraft servicing, and almost every activity within the industry are measured in U.S. dollars.
Nevertheless, based on NBS statistics, air transport was worth N258.9 billion in 2024, which equals approximately $169.3 million.
The industry was worth N215.6 billion in 2023; N178.4 billion in 2022; 145.5 billion in 2021, and N101.1 billion in 2020—the pandemic year—while reaching N222.4 billion in 2019.
According to Daily Trust, based on the exchange rate in 2019, approximately N306 per dollar, aviation expenses amounted to roughly $725.4 million.
The aviation industry faced restrictions throughout 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, significantly impacting air travel.
As per experts, the resurgence of air travel following the coronavirus outbreak was slowed down due to the depreciation of the naira and increasing price hikes, leading to fewer individuals traveling by plane.
A sector in recession?
As per an assessment conducted by the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), three industries performed below expectations in the updated GDP figures.
Analysts noted that three industries—air transportation, textiles, and coal extraction—are currently experiencing a downturn.
The CPPE stated, “High-achieving industries were financial services [15.3%], oil refinement [11.51%], transport [14.08], ICT [7.4%], and metallic minerals [25%].”
The subsequent industries experienced declines: Livestock (-16.7%), Fishing (-0.21%), Textiles (-1.63), Coal Mining (-22.3%), Quarries and Minerals (-21.55%), Plastics and Rubber (-3.2%), Iron and Steel (-0.35%), Air Transportation (-0.81%).
Recession-affected sectors consist of aviation, textile production, and coal extraction. This comes after they have experienced steady decline during recent periods.
As ticket costs rise, the number of travelers has decreased considerably, as reported by airline companies.
The Acting Managing Director of Ibom Air, George Uriesi, has recently expressed worry about declining passenger numbers, stating that this issue is a significant source of anxiety.
The head of Ibom Air stated that air travel demand has been decreasing since 2022, noting that the problem is worsening and steps need to be taken to draw more travelers into flying.
Decreasing passenger numbers – Service Providers
“We’ve dropped by 27% compared to 2024. We’re facing difficulties; we must figure out how to encourage more travel,” he stated.
An airline representative stated that airports need to collaborate with airlines to remain viable, noting, “Within the aviation system, the airline serves as the key force. No one would make even a small amount of currency if airlines stop operating. Everyone discusses finances since it is the airlines that keep operations running.”
The Chief Executive Officer of Aero Contractors, Capt. Ado Sanusi, told our reporter during an interview, “Passenger travel numbers have been decreasing in Nigeria. This decrease has continued, and we understand why it’s happening. I’ve discussed this in multiple interviews before. Several elements contribute to the drop in passenger volume. The flow of travelers indicates the level of economic activity within a nation. When the economy slows down, so does the movement of people.”
‘Activities picking up’
Sanusi, nevertheless, thinks the economy is showing signs of improvement slowly and mentioned that the federal government should collaborate with airlines to simplify tax procedures.
The economy is moving in the correct direction. However, the issue or challenge we face is that taxes are somewhat high, as well as ticket prices. This leads to higher costs overall, which means only a small number of people in Nigeria can afford to buy tickets.
Another party involved in aviation attributed the poor performance of the industry to the reduction in Nigerians’ available earnings.
“There’s no extra money anymore. People are definitely cutting back these days. Flying by plane has become something of a luxury,” he stated.
Nevertheless, Yinka Folami, President of the National Association of Nigerian Travel Agencies (NANTA), expressed disagreement with the notion that the aviation industry is experiencing a downturn.
Based on my experience and observations, there isn’t anything indicating such a major decline that would be categorized as a recession. Nothing suggests that to me,” he stated. “IATA data shows recovery, and the load factor remains fairly strong.
The depreciation of the Naira, with slowing inflation and progress in recovering from COVID-19 – according to an expert
An aviation specialist and the General Secretary of the Aviation Roundtable and Safety Initiative, Mr. Olumide Ohunayo, mentioned during an interview with Daily Trust that the industry had been steadily rebounding after the closure caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, but this momentum was hindered by the depreciation of the naira.
Between approximately N300 and one dollar in 2019, the local currency currently trades at N1,534 as of yesterday.
Ohunayo stated, “The aviation industry was the most impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. It was expected that it would require three years for air travel to return to levels seen before the pandemic. In my view, this forecast has only come true in two or three nations that have regained their 2019 standards.”
In our situation, as we begin to recover, there was a shortage of funding, particularly the dollar, which serves as the primary currency used in the industry. This impacted our ability to operate effectively, leading airlines to reduce their services, cancel certain routes, and prompting travelers to explore alternative choices.
The cost of tickets from dollars to naira surged sharply. As a result of this increase, travelers also stopped using air travel. Airlines no longer possess the same level of capacity as before, which has decreased and impacted the frequency and routes offered, as well as availability within the market.
The exchange rate between the dollar and the naira surged alongside the subsequent rise in inflation, making ticket prices more expensive for travelers.
Once more, the disposable income available to Nigerians previously has been significantly reduced due to inflation. As a result, individuals are no longer traveling for matters that are not essential. Therefore, the journey must hold great significance for those who undertake it.
Amidst all these circumstances, air transportation faced the greatest impact since it represents an upscale mode of travel and comes with a high cost.
‘Remember once again that they also imposed restrictions on private jets. Keep in mind that by 2019, the number of private jets exceeded that of scheduled flights. The crackdown on private jet activities and requiring them to formalize their documentation resulted in certain planes being removed from the country, with others being put into storage, which also impacted the aviation sector’s role in the economy.’
Specialist looks for focused assistance for struggling industry
The head of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, urged focused assistance for struggling industries.
“Particular focus must be placed on industries facing decline and those with sluggish expansion. Overcoming structural issues, enhancing financial accessibility, dealing with instability, and encouraging creativity will be essential for driving revival and development,” he stated.
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