How Is the PLA Systematically Advancing Its Drills Near Taiwan—and What Comes Next?
Experts suggest that the PLA is experimenting with various tactics, such as blockades and anti-access approaches, gradually advancing nearer to the island with each attempt.
Every military exercise conducted close to
Taiwan
The maneuvers conducted by the People’s Liberation Army—including this week’s exercises—have demonstrated additional advancements in the tactical skills and coordination of mainland forces, ranging from simulated assaults to anti-access strategies, as noted by experts.
The PLA
Since August 2022, when the then Speaker of the US House of Representatives was in office, they have carried out six extensive drill sessions.
Nancy Pelosi
explored the autonomous island, showcasing varied maneuvers in every section.
The drills have expanded in scope, coming increasingly nearer to Taiwan, thereby reducing the island’s strategic room for maneuver and response times. Key harbors and possible amphibious assault locations are now effectively under Beijing’s control,” according to mainland military commentator Fu Qianshao.
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Furthermore, these exercises have enhanced the PLA’s capability to respond to external interference, reaching well beyond Taiwan’s shores. This demonstrates a clear message to the United States and its allies in the region, such as Japan, he pointed out.
Getting closer
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, noted that there has been a steady progression in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) exercises, characterized by the incorporation of additional components and enhanced intricacy over time.
What we’re observing is a carefully planned effort to replicate situations as closely as possible to actual world conditions. This means it’s not merely for show or demonstration purposes. Clearly, the PLA is focused on improving and strengthening its capability to execute such missions should they be required.
Koh pointed out that unlike past drills, there were no specific practice zones near Taiwan this week—a change that introduced ambiguity for commercial ships and added more pressure on the Taiwanese military forces.
There is significantly reduced clarity for commercial aviation and maritime operations. Once drilling areas are identified, the Taiwanese military can concentrate their efforts on these specific regions. Currently, without defined zones, they must maintain a state of heightened readiness everywhere, essentially from every direction.
In the August 2022 drill, PLA forces surrounded Taiwan with six designated exercise zones. The closest, situated southeast of the island, was 20km (12.4 miles) from the port of Kaohsiung at its nearest point.
The Taiwanese defense ministry reported that 11 Dongfeng-class missiles were launched towards Taiwan during the exercise, with four of these projectiles passing over the principal island for the first time.
In addition, there were unprecedented accounts of alleged drone sightings over Quemoy, an island governed by Taiwan, referred to as Kinmen.
In the May 2024 drill, yet another milestone occurred as mainland coast guard ships ventured close to the islands of Wuqiu and Dongyin, which are controlled by Taiwan. This action challenged the Taiwanese claim of limited access to these waters, as per Beijing’s perspective.
Comparable patrols took place once more on the opening day of this week’s exercises, which commenced on Tuesday and Wednesday in reaction to Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te’s security measures against mainland China.
Although no specific live-fire zones near the island were officially declared for this week’s drills, experts observed that these exercises took place nearer to Taiwan than previous ones.
f
ore and also featured joint blockade and control manoeuvres.
Additionally, there were simulated precise attacks on strategic locations, one of which was a mock Taiwanese liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility.
The PLA Eastern Theater Command spokesperson, Senior Colonel Shi Yi, stated that during this week’s two-day operation codenamed Strait Thunder-2025A, their naval, air, and missile units converged on Taiwan from various angles.
According to Reuters, Taiwanese officials reported that over ten naval vessels from Mainland China moved closer to Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile adjacent waters on Tuesday morning.
Countering intervention
On Wednesday, the Shandong naval strike force participated in military exercises organized by the PLA, entering from the east of the island, facing away from the Taiwan Strait. As reported by Taipei, this fleet entered their identification zone, coming as close as 190 nautical miles.
The PLA stated that the Shandong conducted strike drills targeting both land and sea objectives, assessing its proficiency in executing joint operations within and beyond the island chain, along with various multidimensional blockades and control tactics.
Additionally, a significant aspect of the recent exercise was how Shandong operated differently—approaching from the east side of the Philippines rather than going through the Bashi Channel as Liaoning did in October of last year.
As reported by Taiwan’s RW News citing unnamed military sources, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has recently adopted new tactics that deviate from past practices, with expectations of further “coercion strategies” aimed at intimidating Taiwan, thus escalating the challenges to its security.
It marked the third occasion that the PLA sent an aircraft carrier for these exercises, and the second time involving the Shandong, which also participated in the April 2023 drills following a meeting between Taiwan’s previous leader, Tsai Ing-wen, and Kevin McCarthy—a successor to Nancy Pelosi—in the United States.
In October 2024, the Liaoning aircraft carrier participated in exercises for the inaugural time, carrying out maneuvers that mimicked several intervention situations. This display was interpreted as a show of force aimed at discouraging outside interference.
As another sign to the United States, recent exercises featured imagery of PLA H-6K bombers equipped with sophisticated YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship missiles, highlighting China’s intent to discourage outside intervention in case of a possible confrontation over Taiwan.
Beijing considers Taiwan as part of its own territory and aims to unify it with the mainland, even resorting to military action if needed. Similar to many nations, the United States does not acknowledge Taiwan as a separate sovereign nation. Nevertheless, Washington has pledged to supply weapons to Taipei to ensure its defense against potential attacks.
Coastguards and blockade
China’s coastal patrol vessels have taken on a more significant presence during these exercises, seeming to employ tactics aimed at potentially encircling the island.
The coast guard became involved in May of the previous year when their ships conducted patrols close to two islands controlled by Taipei.
During the October 2024 exercises, four squadrons of Coast Guard vessels were dispatched, among them being the fleet’s biggest ship, the 10,000-ton CCG 2901, which navigated close to Taiwan.
During recent exercises—which also featured the idea of “critical port and zone management”—the coast guard dispatched three fleets along with an additional trio of ships for patrols near the island.
Last year, a report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies suggested that China might be contemplating employing its coast guard in potential future maritime blockades as their responsibilities continue to expand.
According to the report, Beijing might leverage global views of the coast guard as a civilian organization to exert effective control over Taiwan by interfering with airborne and marine activities.
In Beijing’s view, obstructing Taiwan’s energy supplies might have substantial repercussions for the island’s economy and societal well-being.
The island depends significantly on imported energy sources, notably liquefied natural gas, with these specific ports being essential for this process.
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