On Monday, France’s Marine Le Pen confronts a crucial juncture when a judge decides if she will be barred from participating in the upcoming presidential election.
The far-right frontrunner in the 2027 election will appear in court at 10:00 for the announcement of the verdict.
trial focusing on funding for her National Rally (RN) party
.
In November, when the trial ended, the state prosecutor called for convictions against Le Pen and 24 co-defendants who were alleged to have used European Union funds meant for parliament to compensate their party staff.
But to general surprise the prosecutor also said that Le Pen’s punishment should be not just a €300,000 (£250,000) fine and prison term, but also
disqualification from seeking public office for half a decade
.
Importantly, he stated that the disqualification should take effect immediately rather than being put on hold during the appeals process, which Marine Le Pen is likely to pursue if found guilty.
‘My political death’
The three judges do not have to adhere to the prosecutor’s suggestions.
However, if this happens, it would result in Le Pen, aged 56, being excluded.
running in a presidential election
where she is considered a likely victor.
“They are aiming for my political demise,” she stated in November.
Numerous French analysts—including those who do not back Le Pen—have cautioned about severe implications for democracy should the judicial system be perceived as overstepping into the realm of selecting the nation’s head of state.
“The judicial system holds the future of Marine Le Pen… Convicting her for any misconduct is completely reasonable. However, preventing her from participating in the presidential election is an altogether different issue,” penned seasoned commentator Franz-Olivier Giesbert in the centrist publication Le Point.
Bruno Jeudi, the editor of La Tribune Dimanche newspaper, questioned on Sunday whether entrusting judges with the decision of assessing candidates’ eligibility for office isn’t risky – if not outright dangerous.
Marine Le Pen stated to the same publication: “I personally remain calm. However, I understand why others believe I could feel anxious. The judiciary holds significant sway over our political endeavors. Nonetheless, I doubt they would take such drastic actions against us.”
Several possibilities for the outcome are being examined.
Here are four possible outcomes:
Initially, Le Pen might be exonerated regarding the European Parliament financial scandal. However, this outcome is generally considered improbable.
Secondly, the judges might find her guilty but not automatically disqualify her. If this happens, she would promptly file an appeal, and the disqualification wouldn’t take effect until after a subsequent trial (and potentially a third one reaching the highest appellate court).
This could allow her to compete in 2027, despite being burdened with a conviction for misusing public funds. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether this conviction would significantly harm her prospects, considering the string of financing controversies involving all major French political groups throughout recent history.
Thirdly, the judges might adhere to the prosecutor’s recommendation and impose an immediate disqualification. If they did so, she would likely challenge this decision through an appeal process, during which time the remaining components of her sentencing—such as paying a fine or serving jail time—would be put on hold. Consequently, she would not be eligible to stand for election in 2027.
Fourthly, the court might impose a reduced period of mandatory disqualification, such as one year, which would technically allow her to stand for election again.
In 2027, it would be Marine Le Pen’s fourth attempt at becoming president, and this time around presents her best opportunity for success.
A survey published in the conservative daily JDD on Sunday indicated that she might secure between 34-37% of the votes in the initial round, significantly outpacing all potential competitors.
In the past two presidential elections, she was disadvantaged by the two-round system, enabling adversaries from the left, center, and right to oppose her.
unite behind a single candidate – Emmanuel Macron – to prevent her from taking control
.
However, decades of “purification” since she surpassed her father Jean-Marie Le Pen as the leader of the party have rendered the opposition to the National Rally (RN) much more fragmented compared to before. Meanwhile, successes achieved by extreme-right parties elsewhere have contributed to diminishing the stigma associated with a potential RN administration.
Should Le Pen be prevented from entering the race
Her logical successor could be Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old party leader who was being prepared to potentially become his country’s prime minister after her.
Yet, according to party insiders, very few measures have been taken internally to prepare for what would undoubtedly be perceived as a massive and disruptive political upheaval.
If Le Pen were deemed ineligible to run in 2027, this might further undermine the already fragile minority government led by Prime Minister François Bayrou. Given that the RN holds 120 seats in the National Assembly, they have the ability to align themselves with the leftist bloc for voting purposes.
cast a vote of no confidence to topple the administration
.
So far, Marine Le Pen has restrained her supporters. If she believes she has been the target of an institutional conspiracy, she might be less hesitant to act differently.
More on this story
- Moment of big opportunity and high risk for Marine Le Pen
- Jean-Marie Le Pen – founder of the French extreme-right movement and dubbed the ‘Devil of the Republic’
- Macron set to speak following Barnier administration’s downfall