Within a matter of weeks, the prospects for U.S. tourism have darkened due to several policy choices made by President Donald Trump. These policies have upset certain international travelers and raised concerns about rising costs along with an anticipated increase in the value of the dollar.
The arrival of foreign travelers to the United States is anticipated to decrease by 5.1% in 2025 relative to the previous year, contrasting with an earlier forecast for an 8.8% rise, according to a report released by Tourism Economics at the end of last month.
It is anticipated that their spending will decrease by 10.9%.
Following the release of the report, “the circumstances have worsened additionally,” and the consequences may turn out to be more severe, according to Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, who attributed this development to “the impact of negative sentiment toward the U.S.”
Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China—and has also considered imposing them on the European Union. Additionally, a comprehensive strategy to restrict immigration has been stepped up.
Government agencies such as the U.S. Agency for International Development have faced significant cuts, resulting in layoffs of numerous public servants ranging from lawyers to park rangers. Additionally, Trump has proposed contentious strategies regarding the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
“Trump Administration policies and rhetoric, which have caused division, may deter people from traveling to the United States,” stated Tourism Economics, a branch of Oxford Economics.
“Certain groups might experience pressure to refrain from organizing events within the United States or sending staff members to the country, which would reduce business-related travel,” the statement continued.
According to the World Tourism Forum Institute, a combination of strict immigration measures, a robust US dollar, and worldwide geopolitical strains could substantially impact international visitors, potentially altering the country’s tourism industry for an extended period.
Among residents of 16 European and Asian countries surveyed by YouGov in December, 35% of respondents said they were less likely to come to the United States under Trump, while 22% were more likely.
For tourists from France, Uzbekistan, and Argentina interviewed by
AFP
in New York’s Times Square, Trump’s stance has not upended their plans.
Marianela Lopez and Ailen Hadjikovakis, both 33, nevertheless used their European passports rather than their Argentine ones to avoid any problems at the border.
“We were a bit scared about the situation, but we didn’t change our plans,” said Lopez.
The Lagardere family, who came from France, said it hadn’t impacted their plans either.
The Americans “elected this president. It’s democracy. If they’re not happy, they’ll change it in four years,” said Laurent Lagardere, 54.
“He remains himself” and steering clear of the United States “will not make a difference,” Lagardere said.
According to the National Travel and Tourism Office, approximately 77.7 million international visitors were anticipated for 2024, marking an increase of 17% compared to the previous year; however, they do not have the finalized data from the prior year yet.
Visitors from Western Europe–accounting for 37% of all tourists in 2024–are the most prone to opt for alternative locations, as are Canadians and Mexicans.
In early February, the U.S. Travel Association cautioned that new customs tariffs could discourage Canadian visitors, who represent the biggest group of international travelers to the United States, totaling 20.4 million people in 2024.
Statistics Canada reports that the number of Canadians coming back from the U.S. dropped by 23% in February compared to the previous year, marking the second month in a row with a decrease.
In New York, which welcomed 12.9 million foreign travelers in 2024, the effect is already noticeable, with Canadians canceling tour bookings and a drop in online searches for hotels or Broadway shows, NYC Tourism president Julie Coker told
AFP
.
She lowered her forecast for the year in February but said that so far, only Canadians are saying no to Trump’s America.
“We’re not currently seeing anything from the U.K. or Europe,” because it’s too early, she said. “We are definitely watching that very closely.”
However, British and German authorities have recently cautioned their citizens to remain particularly cautious regarding their travel documents, highlighting the potential danger of arrest.
United Airlines has observed a significant decrease in travel from Canada to the United States along with a reduction in the need for internal trips, similar to what many of its rivals have experienced.
Based on data from Tourism Economics, the tourism industry might face a loss of approximately $64 billion in revenue during 2025 as a result of reduced international and domestic travel.
Americans currently seem paralyzed due to the economic forecast, and concepts such as recession and inflation are also frightening away visitors, alongside the potential for a more robust US dollar, according to experts.
“This will increase costs for incoming tourists in the U.S., which could reduce both the number of visitors and their average duration of stay,” according to Tourism Economics.
Experts are equally concerned about how stricter immigration policies could impact significant sporting events held in the U.S., including the Ryder Cup (2025), the FIFA World Cup (2026), and the 2026 Summer Olympics scheduled for Los Angeles.